So after a watershed year for the NBA, we will see if the lessons learned have been absorbed in time for the draft tonight. Usually the draft is a great opportunity for ridicule, but after two blockbuster trades sent two teams going nowhere to the Finals, there's finally a possibility that the GMs have caught on to what's been obvious to everyone else the past 15 years. Namely European big guys are soft, the guards are better, if a player doesn't perform at a high level in college it's not because he was in the wrong system, he doesn't have it. And the number one thing: if you pick a player in the lottery under 6'7", he'd better be able to shoot and handle the ball, and if you pick a player over 6'8", he'd better be able to score in the paint and rebound.
That being said, the teams will still find a way to fuck it up. So, for posterity's sake, here's how I think the draft should go down.
1. Chicago: Michael Beasley
So two things: 1. Taking the hometown hero to save the Pro team has only worked for LeBron. Most have flamed out under the pressure. Rose is from Chicago and will be under tremendous stress if picked here. 2. The Bulls need scoring in a big way and that's what you get from Beasley. They especially need interior scoring as their two returning High point getters are jump shooters, Deng, and Gordon. Rose gives them leadership and an ability to penetrate. He's not a great passer a la Paul, and without tutelage like Deron Williams got from John Stockton in Utah, don't expect him to log 8-10 assists things.
2. Miami: Derrick Rose
He's best off here, and so is Miami. With Rose and Wade on the perimeter, Miami could have the same kind of outside attack as the back-to-back championship Piston teams of the 80's, with Rose playing Dumars to Wade's Isiah. Wade's ability to create will cover for Rose's lack of assists.
3. Minnesota: Roy Hibbert
If Chicago and Miami brain-fart and Beasley is available here, of course, they take him in a dream scenario for the Wolves. But he won't be available, so God help them from OJ Mayo, the foregone bust of this draft. All of their recent picks have been 1, 2,or 3s. They need help on the inside for Al Jefferson. Someone to rebound, defend, block shots, and shoot a high percentage when the ball finds him open. And who does that in this draft? Roy Hibbert. Feel free to kill for this pick now, but in three years when we look back at this draft, he will be a top five pick.
4. LA Clippers (from Seattle): Jerryd Bayless
This team needs backcourt help in the worst way. They are rumored to be getting this pick only if OJ Mayo hasn't been taken, in which case Seattle will. The aforementioned rule of hometown hero rules out Westbrook here. So I'm going with Bayless. He's got the height to defend, unlike Augistin, and he's a pure point, unlike Gordon. Like Hibbert, he probably will be taken after a bunch of other guys at his position, but 3 years from now he'll be neck and neck with Rose for the top Point Guard in this draft.
5. Memphis: Kevin Love
This team looks terrible, and it is, but there is hope. Conely at point and Gay at small forward is a decent foundation. Neither one is a leader or the face of the franchise. Love would fit both niches, as well as score on the block, rebound, play better defense than he'll get credit for and keep the ball moving in what, if you throw Miller in there, is a potent offense.
6. New York: Russell Westbrook
A great fit. Westbrook would make everybody on this team better and wouldn't have to worry about scoring, with Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford hogging the ball. The Knicks are too dumb and unlucky to get this player though.
7. Seattle: Marreese Speights
They need help everywhere except for small forward, Kevin Durant, and he's a perimeter forward, so I'm going inside (of course they are looking for a point). Another surprise as there are two or three centers rated ahead of him. This guy has size and his FG is over 60%. Lopez by comparison is under 50%. Otherwise their numbers are comparable.
8. Milwaukee: Mario Chalmers
Another team with a desperate need for a point guard. Luckily for the Bucks, this draft is loaded with point guards. I took Chalmers over Augistin because of Chalmers' versatility, height, and great defensive ability.
9. Charlotte: Danilo Gallinari
They already have a swing forward in Wallace, but Gallinari is a great fit for their roster and would allow them to play a Phoenix type of game.
10. New Jersey: Darrell Arthur
Strong quick, plays defense, runs the floor, and can hit a 10 footer. Now that the Nets have Yi, they need somebody to play inside, and Arthur is the best inside power forward outside of Kevin Love.
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